Investment firm Sterling Capital has valued Quickmart at Sh6.96 per share, 7.2 per cent below the Sh7.50 at which the supermarket chain’s shares are being sold ahead of its listing on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).
In a research note reported by Capital FM on Thursday, Sterling said it expects the retailer’s earnings to keep growing, but more slowly than management has projected.
“We expect earnings to grow but at a slower pace than management projects. Our FY26 expected EPS is about 7.6% below guidance, and the gap widens to 16% in FY27 as we take a more conservative view of margins,” the firm said.
Slower growth at existing stores
Sterling said Quickmart’s revenue exceeded Sh50.4 billion in the 2025 financial year and that its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin widened by 10.1 per cent.
It flagged, however, that sales growth at existing stores slowed to 5.7 per cent in FY2025 as customer traffic eased, raising questions about the retailer’s ability to sustain its expansion.
The firm estimates that Quickmart could pay a dividend of Sh0.41 per share for the 2026 financial year, a yield of about 5.5 per cent at the offer price.
Selling shareholder risk
The offer is a sale of two billion existing shares, half of the company, by Sokoni Retail Kenya, which is controlled by investment firm Adenia. It is expected to raise Sh15 billion for Sokoni, while Quickmart plans to finance its growth from internally generated cash.
Sterling listed the possibility of further share sales by Sokoni as a risk to the share price, saying more disposals could add selling pressure after the listing.
According to the company’s offer announcement, Sokoni will be subject to a 24-month lock-up from the listing date covering 60 per cent of its post-offer shareholding.
How the offer works
The offer opened at 9am on October 5 and closes at 5pm on October 30. At Sh7.50 a share, the listing values Quickmart’s 4 billion issued shares at Sh30 billion. The minimum application is 500 shares, with further applications in multiples of 100.
The sale will only go ahead if at least 75 per cent of the offer shares, or 1.5 billion shares, are taken up by the closing date. If that threshold is not met, application money will be refunded without interest.
The offer document also says the International Finance Corporation may invest up to $15 million (about Sh1.94 billion) in the offer, roughly 13 per cent of the shares on sale, though it warns investors not to rely on that potential investment.
Shares are due to be credited to investors’ CDS accounts on November 11, with trading on the NSE’s Main Investment Market Segment set to begin on November 12. Every applicant must hold a valid CDS account.
BusinessRadar earlier reported that advisers on the Quickmart IPO stand to earn Sh575 million from the transaction.
