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Kenya’s economy grows 5.1% in second quarter despite oil price shock

Kenya’s economy grows 5.1% in second quarter despite oil price shock
Photo: Timothy A. Gonsalves / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Kenya’s economy expanded by 5.1 percent in the second quarter of 2026, faster than the 4.9 percent recorded in the same three months of 2025, according to quarterly figures released on Friday by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The April to June growth came as the country absorbed a sharp rise in fuel costs and a shortened rainy season. Average crude oil prices climbed to $104.45 a barrel from $67.44 a year earlier, while the average retail price of light diesel rose 32 percent to Sh217.8 a litre from Sh165.1.

“The second quarter of 2026 was characterized by disruptions and uncertainty in the global energy market and the early cessation of the long rains,” KNBS said in the report.

Services carry the quarter

Electricity and water supply grew 7.7 percent, the fastest of the major sectors, while information and communication expanded 7.2 percent and financial and insurance activities 6.1 percent.

Transportation and storage grew 4.4 percent, up from 3.3 percent a year earlier. “The sector’s performance was supported by increased activity across land, rail, and water transport,” the bureau said.

Accommodation and food services, a measure closely tied to tourism, grew 7.4 percent. That was well below the 12.8 percent pace posted in the second quarter of 2025.

Manufacturing picked up to 2.2 percent from 1.3 percent.

Construction slows, farming weakens

Construction grew 6 percent, down from 7.3 percent, even as demand for building materials rose. Cement consumption increased 11.1 percent to 2.69 million tonnes from 2.42 million tonnes. Use of galvanised sheets rose 19.7 percent to 92,424 tonnes and steel bars and rods 5.0 percent to 138,365 tonnes.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing, which accounts for more than a fifth of output, slowed to 3.5 percent from 4.0 percent.

“The early cessation of the March–May long rains in May 2026, particularly during the critical stages of crop development, resulted in the downward revisions of expected crop production,” the KNBS report said.

Some crops still performed well. Tea output rose 11.1 percent to 162,600 tonnes from 146,300 tonnes, while coffee exports increased 10 percent to 22,046.4 tonnes.

Prices rise alongside growth

The expansion came as living costs went up. Inflation in the quarter climbed to 6.23 percent from 3.89 percent a year earlier, driven largely by food and transport prices, Business Daily reported.

Fuel costs have stayed in focus into the current quarter. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority raised pump prices again from October 15, as covered in our review of the latest EPRA fuel prices.

Faster growth in sectors such as ICT, finance and energy is often watched by jobseekers as a sign of where hiring may follow. Current vacancies across these fields are listed on jobinkenya.co.ke.

About Author

Norah Waceke is a business journalist and editor at Business Radar with more than eight years of experience covering Kenya's economy, companies and markets. She previously worked at Kenyans.co.ke, one of the country's leading digital news platforms, where she reported on business, finance and current affairs. A graduate of Multimedia University of Kenya, Norah focuses on clear, accurate reporting that helps readers understand the money stories shaping their lives and businesses.

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