Drivers, matatu owners and households using kerosene will learn on Wednesday whether fuel will cost more from Thursday, when the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority publishes its monthly price review.
The review is the most closely watched in months because two things change at once. The government’s temporary cut of VAT on fuel to 8 per cent was extended only to October 14, and global crude is trading above $100 a barrel.
Where prices stand
For the cycle running from September 15 to October 14, EPRA left prices unchanged. Super petrol retails at a maximum of Sh214.03 a litre in Nairobi, diesel at Sh217.86 and kerosene at Sh191.38. In Mombasa the figures are Sh210.87, Sh214.58 and Sh188.09.
Prices are higher further inland because of transport from the coast. Marsabit petrol, for example, is capped at Sh226.34.
Brent crude traded near $104 a barrel on October 9, about 49 per cent above its level before the conflict involving Iran began in late February, Info Kenya reported. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed freight costs to record highs.
Why VAT matters
If the reduced rate lapses and VAT returns to 16 per cent, the tax alone would add several shillings to each litre before any change in import costs is counted. The Tax Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026, which would write the 8 per cent rate into law, closed for public comment on October 13. Until Parliament acts, the rate depends on executive extensions.
EPRA’s formula also takes in the landed cost of imported products, the exchange rate and margins. The shilling has been steady near Sh129.75 to the dollar, which helps.
What it means at home
Fuel feeds directly into fares, food and electricity. Transport prices were already 15.6 per cent higher in September than a year earlier, and diesel 26.9 per cent higher, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Overall inflation stood at 6.8 per cent.
Matatu operators have previously raised fares within days of a pump price increase. Households that cook with kerosene, mostly lower-income families, are the most exposed to any change.
The new prices take effect at midnight on October 14 and run to November 14.
Sources: EPRA | Pulse Kenya | Info Kenya
Photo: Queen Asali / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
