Kenya passed 62% of the diesel price rise on to motorists, less than Rwanda and Tanzania, IMF says

Get breaking business news on WhatsApp

Kenyan motorists have felt only part of this year’s jump in global fuel costs, with 52% of the rise in petrol benchmarks and 62% of the rise for diesel reaching motorists between late February and mid-September, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

The figures appear in the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook Update for sub-Saharan Africa, published on October 15 under the title “Resilient Growth, Clouded Outlook”. The Fund compared changes in retail petrol and diesel prices in 21 countries with changes in the matching international refined-product benchmarks from February 23 to September 14, 2026.

Kenya against its neighbours

Rwanda passed on more than the full increase, at 125% for petrol and 111% for diesel. Tanzania came in at 67% for petrol and 65% for diesel, while Ethiopia stood at 38% and 44%. Uganda is not among the 21 countries in the IMF sample.

Across the region the spread was wide. Sierra Leone recorded the highest diesel figure at 133%, while Zambia’s petrol prices moved against the benchmark, at minus 36%. South Africa passed on 77% for petrol and 106% for diesel.

The IMF calculates pass-through as 100 times the change in the retail price divided by the change in the benchmark. It describes the numbers as preliminary and warns: “This is not a subsidy rate.” A low score can reflect a range of measures, from tax cuts to a stronger currency.

The report says Rwanda “combined substantial price adjustment with monetary tightening and targeted support”, while Ethiopia “differentiated temporary fuel subsidies by product and customer to contain costs.”

Relief mostly untargeted

The Fund found that most of the fiscal measures governments announced were meant to be temporary, but that “only about one in seven was classified as targeted”.

“Generalized price relief is poorly targeted because better-off households typically receive a lion’s share of the benefits; its fiscal cost can displace social spending that protects vulnerable groups more effectively,” the report says. It adds that where relief is not fully funded, losses at fuel importers and state utilities “can lead to arrears, shortages or rationing.”

Prices have risen since

The IMF window closed a month before the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s latest review. In its October 14 announcement, EPRA raised the maximum pump prices of super petrol, diesel and kerosene by KSh12.93, KSh9.90 and KSh28.49 a litre for the period to November 14. In Nairobi a litre of super petrol now costs up to KSh226.96, diesel KSh227.76 and kerosene KSh219.87.

EPRA said the prices include VAT at 8%, “in line with Government policy to cushion consumers from the negative effects of high international prices.” It put the rise in the average landed cost of super petrol at 11.81% between August and September, to US$977.55 per cubic metre, with diesel up 11.32% to US$1,065.38 and kerosene up 9.41% to US$1,098.31.

EPRA’s own figures show how far international prices have climbed. Super petrol rose from US$686.53 a tonne in February to US$1,300.65 in September, and diesel from US$637.76 to US$1,215.83. Over the same months the shilling moved from 129.44 to 129.91 to the dollar.

The wider outlook

The IMF expects sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027. It projects median inflation to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, with fuel and transport costs the immediate source of pressure and fertiliser feeding into food prices later.

Its baseline assumes a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with oil averaging US$96 a barrel this year and US$87 in 2027. It says diesel markets remain particularly tight after losses of refining capacity, and that fertiliser prices are projected to rise by 26% in 2026 compared with 2025.

On Saturday we reported Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi’s assurance that fuel supply remains secure, along with his warning that longer shipping routes may raise costs.