Weatherman warns of intensified rains across Kenya starting October 23

Get breaking business news on WhatsApp

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has warned that rains already falling over western Kenya will intensify and spread to Nairobi and other parts of the country from Thursday, 23 October 2025, likely marking the start of the October to December short rains in most regions. Thirty-nine counties are on the list of areas expected to be hit.

In Advisory No. 03/2025, issued at 11am on Wednesday, 22 October and valid until 30 October, the weatherman said rainfall affecting parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and the Highlands West of the Rift Valley was expected to intensify to more than 30mm in 24 hours. The rains would then spread to the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, and to parts of the South-Eastern Lowlands from Thursday afternoon.

“This is likely to mark the onset of the short rains season (OND) over several parts of the country, except parts of the South-Eastern Lowlands and the Coast,” the advisory said, according to Capital FM. The department said the heavy rain would continue and reach parts of North-Eastern Kenya from Thursday, 30 October. The notice was issued by Kennedy Thiong’o on behalf of the acting director of meteorological services.

KMD classed the alert as a medium-level advisory with a moderate probability of occurrence, meaning a 33 to 66 per cent chance that the forecast conditions will happen.

Counties on alert

The advisory lists these counties, grouped here by region:

The coast and parts of the South-Eastern Lowlands are expected to see the season start later, in line with KMD’s seasonal forecast for October to December 2025.

Floods, landslides and lightning

The department warned residents to watch out for floods, including in places where little rain has fallen. “Flood waters may appear in places where it has not rained heavily, especially downstream,” the advisory said, according to The Star. Its safety advice is direct:

• Do not drive through or walk in moving water.
• Stay out of open fields during storms.
• Do not shelter under trees or near grilled windows, to reduce the risk of lightning strikes.
• People in landslide-prone areas, especially on the slopes of the Aberdare ranges, Mount Kenya and other steep parts of the western region, should be on high alert.

A later update reported by Capital FM on 23 October raised the expected intensity in some areas, warning of heavy (20 to 50mm) to very heavy (above 50mm) rain in 24 hours with gusty winds that could damage trees, power lines and light structures. Residents of flood and landslide-prone areas were urged to move to safer ground and follow alerts from local authorities and disaster management agencies.

What it means for farmers and businesses

For farmers in the western and central highlands, the onset of the short rains is the signal to plant. The same rains bring risks. Heavy downpours can wash away topsoil and newly planted seed, cut off feeder roads used to move milk, tea and vegetables to market, and flood low-lying stores. Transporters and businesses that depend on deliveries should plan for slower journeys on rural roads during the alert period.

Power cuts are common when strong winds bring down lines. Our Kenya Power self-service guide explains how to report an outage by USSD, app or phone. Keep emergency numbers to hand as well; our list of ambulance and emergency contacts in Kenya covers 999, 112, the Kenya Red Cross, St John Ambulance and AMREF. For the bigger picture on water storage and farming, read about the KSh 600 billion irrigation plan.

Frequently asked questions

When do the October 2025 heavy rains start?

KMD said the rains would intensify and spread to Nairobi and the South-Eastern Lowlands from Thursday, 23 October 2025, and reach parts of North-Eastern Kenya from 30 October.

How many counties are affected?

The advisory names 39 counties, from Kisumu, Kakamega and Nakuru to Nairobi, Meru, Turkana and Mandera, plus parts of Kajiado, Machakos and Makueni.

How heavy will the rain be?

The advisory warned of more than 30mm in 24 hours. A later update said some areas could see more than 50mm in 24 hours with gusty winds.

Is this the start of the short rains?

KMD said it is likely to mark the onset of the October to December short rains over most of the country, except parts of the South-Eastern Lowlands and the Coast.